Turkish accession negotiations: A 21st century quagmire

The question  whether Turkey is eventually going to join the EU, is a European affair that has created arguments for and against across the Continent. Surely it is going to be the most well argued theme from any other accession process Europe has ever witnessed.

Analyzing the current issue from the perspective of global politics and balance of powers; The Turkish negotiations cannot be viewed without first taking into account the EU-USA bilateral relations. The enlargement of the EU is an international issue of ecoumenic porpotions and not just an agenda between Europe and Turkey.

Three of the four basic units of global power-politics (EU, Russia, USA) are concerned with Turkey’s future, whilst a fourth one (China) is not completely indifferent. The inclusion of Turkey into the European structure strongly depends by the future of the EU itself. Will Europe become a single entity as far as foreign and defense policy is concerned, or will it stay as it is?

Should the latter is the future prospect, Europe will be just a projection of Eurasian land mass under the silk but all-visible American influence.

Turkey’s future with Europe therefore is understood if it is framed through the “World power game”.

Nowadays there are two key issues to discuss for the aforementioned thematic.

The first would be the unity of the West. More specifically whether USA will continue to be the undisputable leader of the Western states well into the 21st century, or will it split its influence with Brussels. Turkey’s accession, as long as it remains a staunch American ally, will dwarf any European thought for empowerement. If one adds UK with its already strong bondage with the States, then the vision of a strong all-influencing Franco-German axis will remain only as midsummer dreams for the French bureucrats and German industrialists.

The second key issue would be the process already underway by the West, to “Transform”Islam in the Middle East towarda pro-Western stance and on a second level to assist the Muslim world to become institutionalized within the Western modes (Societal, economic and cultural). The reason for this is not just the threat of Islamic fundementalism  but also the containement of an increasing Russian expansionism and the exclusion of the oil rich and culturally explosive regionfrom the new upcoming capitalist centres of India and China. Turkey is viewed as a model of the Western push into the Middle East and the total domination into the most important area of the world.

Continuing, what the Western power structures expect from Turkey -And possibly dictate- is to mutate in a wider scale and on a social and religious spectrum. The Turkish Islam should be “Christianized”, become adept into the Western capitalism, as Christianity and especially its Protestant wing. If the Turkish experiment is successful, the procedure will follow for the rest of the Middle East and the final target is to revitalize Islam as an alternate Western mode of spirituality.

From the Turkish point of view, the country’s elite is fevorously for the accessionbut they don’t want to become just another addition in the world’s power structure. On the contrary they aspire to achieve the status of a key country and retain their terms when dealing with others. Of course the dynamic of Turkey would not in any circumastances allowed it to fabricate an opposition stance against the West. Thsu it will try during the long standing negotiation process to give as much less in terms of cultural alteration and receive as much more from the EU (Capital, political support). Most importantly the Turkish administration aspires to retain its role of a perceived independent power unit and not to become a dispensable part of a wider plan. The plan to be Supposedly a Western initiative.

Therefore in the coming years we may witness a continuous effort towards a Westernization of the Turkish society, whilst Turkey will grasp every given opportunity to upgrade its geopolitical influence.

Firm predictions on such an important and complicated issue cannot be made and no one can safely assure of the final outcome. The only certainty in this case, is that the area from Serajevo to the Gulf will produce the most interesting headilines and developments for years to come. As the Chinese have eloquently captured in a proverb “May you live in interesting times” (1)

(1) An old Chinese curse

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